Euroleague Quarter Final Previews – in the nick of time

In time-honoured tradition, familiar to anybody who taught me at the University of Manchester or has been my manager in any of my jobs since, I take deadlines very literally. If you ask me to do something by a certain time and date, it will get done, but don’t expect to see it early. And so it goes for this Euroleague preview. Competing better sites have, annoyingly, acted with more diligence and delivered accurate, witty and informed previews, I have read them all, and tried not to be influenced by them. Although they make so many good points, it’s difficult not to be. Anyway, if you think some of this is familiar, don’t think I’m claiming that my words below are all 100% original, but you’ll have to take my word for it that I’ve had said some of this stuff anyway! So on to the matchups:

Caja Laboral v Maccabi
This is the most fascinating series just because of the clash of styles. Big Sofo is the key, but Maccabi actually look more fluid sometimes when he’s off the floor, Perkins and Pargo can get out and run a bit more. But Sofo being on the floor and getting the ball means more time for Pape Sow and Esteban Batista for Caja Lab, probably at the expense of Mirza Teletovic, who has an allergic reaction to the paint (or you would think so) which takes out one of Caja’s big offensive weapons. It’s not a wise man who puts any faith in Caja to be consistent, but I can’t help thinking they’ll win the series in 5, I think they have too much offense for Maccabi to handle. But as someone who loves running, uptempo ball, maybe I’m just hoping. It’s a big IF, but if Sofo gets into foul trouble or is ineffective, that will allow Caja to put out their best lineup, and if Maccabi try to up the pace, I think the Basque team is just slightly better at that game. So my prediction is Caja Laboral in 5.

Barcelona v Panathinaikos
Barcelona have wobbled a tad lately, losing to Fuenlabrada in ACB play and narrowly avoiding defeat at bottom of the table Menorca Basquet. I watch a lot of ACB and the more you see a team, the more you become aware of their strenghts, but also their weaknesses. I’m going to ignore the domestic swoon though – it looked like nothing more than mental fatigue, even with such a deep squad, with bench players who would start on literally any other team in Europe, the grind of the season inevitably takes its toll at some point. Barcelona have the most talent in the competition, but Ricky Rubio will have his work cut out against Dimitris Diamantidis. I expect DD to wear him out on both sides of the floor, in the biggest matchup advantage for the Greens, so Jaka Lakovic could have a pivotal role in this series. Aleks Maric is back in the middle for PAO, and Mike Batiste will be a tough matchup for Lorbek, Anderson and Vasquez, but with so many bodies to throw into the mix, it’s hard to see anybody outlasting Barcelona in a series. If this was a Final 4 tie I would be more inclined to go with Pana, but in a series? I’m saying Barcelona in 4.

Real Madrid v Power Elec Valencia
Injuries have hit both teams – Real will be without Sergio Rodriguez and (possibly) Clay Tucker; Valencia without Victor Claver and James Augustine, the latter being replaced temporarily by the oldest player in the competition, 44 year old Darryl Middleton. Ouch. When this tie was set, I would have been leaning toward Valencia, who defeated Real in their last ACB clash, and were riding the wave of qualification from the Top 16. Real may have lost a heartbreaker to the Jorge Garbajosa Angel of Vengeance show on Saturday, but they seem to have been playing with a new found freedom since Messina’s departure from the bench, and with a stonking collection of frontcourt talent, plus the ability through necessity to give Sergio Llull more minutes and touches as a creator (not to mention the addition by subtraction of Clay Tucker’s defensive ‘prowess’ and questionable shot selection) they should have too much for Valencia. Prediction: Real Madrid in 4.

Olympiakos v Montepaschi Siena
Bo McCallebb is back, and although that might pose some questions as to upsetting the flow Montepaschi had got into during his absence, bringing back the most destructive offensive point guard in Europe can’t be a bad thing. I keep going back to teams with power and depth upfront, and I find it hard to ignore that here. Rasho Nesterovic is shooting 76% in EL play and that is largely a factor of him only seeming to attempt tip ins and dunks. I don’t have any hard data to back that up, but you must, repeat, must box this guy out. Montepaschi don’t, on first glance, have anybody who will really be capable of this. Milan Rakovic could do it, but if I was putting money on him doing it 3 times in 5 games, to such a level of success that Montepaschi wins, well, I wouldn’t. I’m also a big fan of youngsters Loukas Mavrokefalides, who stepped up when Ioannis Bourossis was suspended, and Zoran Erceg, who may not even play much in this series. Like Barcelona, Ivkovic’s side have experience and depth at every position, and whilst McCallebb will tire Milos Teodosic and Malik Hairston is proving to be a difficult cover, a bit like the Barcelona v Pana series, if this was a one off, maybe that wins out, but over a series, I’m playing it safe and saying Olympakos in 4.

As I said at the top, I urge you to read:
Euroleague Adventures @ Slam Online (and listen to the podcast if you haven’t already)
Ball in Europe
Euroleague.net

and most of all to enjoy the feast of basketball with which we’re about to be blessed!

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